Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 24 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 767
(S08E40) is in a slow growth phase and produced occasional B-class
flares. Region 766 (N13E37), the only other sunspot group on the
visible disk, was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 767.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to below
400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with occasional unsettled periods on 25 and 26
May. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into geoeffective position on 27 May, and produce occasional
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 085 Predicted 25 May-27 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 24 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 005/008-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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