Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 25 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Occasional B-class flares were observed in Regions 766 (N14E23) and 767 (S07E26). These two active regions are the only sunspot groups on the visible disk, and exhibited little change this period. A large CME off the east limb was observed on LASCO imagery during the latter half of 24 May. The likely source of this CME was backsided.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 767.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 360 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on 26 May. Occasional active periods are expected on 27 and 28 May as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 084
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  085/085/095
  90 Day Mean        25 May 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%50%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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