Viewing archive of Friday, 27 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 27 2220 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02)
produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This
region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio
sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed
on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class
activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately
complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the
visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on
29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 096 Predicted 28 May-30 May 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 27 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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