Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 30 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 756 (S07E01) produced a C1/Sf flare at 30/1824 UTC. Region 756 continues to increase in area; however, this region has only managed to produced lower level C-flares. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period between 30/0000 UTC and 0300 UTC. Heightened activity was due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 380 km/s to 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible on 01 May. Conditions are expected to settled down to quiet to unsettled levels with active periods possible for the remainder of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 106
  Predicted   01 May-03 May  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  020/040-018/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%25%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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