Viewing archive of Friday, 29 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 29 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 756
(S06E17) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event
that occurred at 29/2041Z. White light analysis indicates there was
a decrease in sunspot area during the period. This region remains
magnetically complex with a delta structure to the south and another
apparent in the trailing central portion of the large spot. Region
757 (S05W10) underwent a slight increase in sunspot area. The CME
on the eastern limb seen in LASCO imagery appears to be from a back
sided source. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 756 continues to have the potential to produce
an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels
today. An isolated active period occurred between 29/1800 and 2100Z
due to a solar sector boundary crossing and a sustained southward
Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for 29
April with isolated active periods possible in the nighttime
sectors. Active to minor storming conditions are expected on 01 May
due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Peak solar wind speeds are expected on 02 May which may
lead to isolated periods of major storming.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 105 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/012-020/020-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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