Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 02 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 747
(S07W04) continued to show growth in sunspot area. Region 748
(N09E33) went unchanged today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels
throughout the period. Isolated minor storming may be possible on 3
and 4 April. The expected elevated conditions are due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 080 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 080/080/090 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/025-020/035-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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