Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
741 (N12E44) produced several low level B-class flares during the
period. A slight decay in sunspot area was observed today. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective early
in the period. Solar wind speeds increased from 380 km/s to near
650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects. Isolated minor storm conditions are likely to
occur through tomorrow (7 March).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 084 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 085/090/095 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 023/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTFairbanks, AK
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