Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 741 (N12E44) produced several low level B-class flares during the period. A slight decay in sunspot area was observed today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective early in the period. Solar wind speeds increased from 380 km/s to near 650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole effects. Isolated minor storm conditions are likely to occur through tomorrow (7 March).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 084
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  085/090/095
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  023/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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