Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 775 (N10W32) produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at 1609 UTC. Both flares were long duration events. No significant development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A minor transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s. Subsequent active conditions were observed. At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Continued southward Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June, with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 103
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/025-008/020-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm30%10%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm30%10%10%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

All times in UTC

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