Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 09 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C2
flare at 1027 UTC from Region 786 (N11W31). Region 789 (N18E15)
produced a C1 flare at 2045 UTC. Region 783 (S03W75) grew in size
but has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Active conditions
followed a period of sustained southward Bz. At approximately 0500
UTC, Bz turned south and varied between -5 and -10 nT. At the time
of issue, Bz remains south.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 July due to the effects of CME
activity observed on 7 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 11 and 12 July.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 107 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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