Viewing archive of Friday, 8 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a
long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported
Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The
event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager
data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and
exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently
observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this
time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this
activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME's between
05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11
July.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 110 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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