Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N10W43) produced an M2 flare at 09/2206 UTC with an associated full halo CME observed in LASCO imagery. Region 783 (S03W88) produced a C9 flare at 10/1516 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (869 km/s). No LASCO imagery of this event was available at the time of issue.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. A transient shock from the CME activity on 07 July was observed by ACE at approximately 10/0300 UTC. Following the shock, there was a period of sustained southward Bz resulting in major storming in the period from 1200 to 1500 UTC. There was a proton enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons associated with the M2.8 flare on 09 July; however, proton levels remained under event thresholds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated periods of major storm conditions for 11 July due to the arrival of a transient shock from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09 July. Predominantly active conditions are expected on 12 July, declining to mostly unsettled on 13 July.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jul 102
  Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        10 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  013/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  028/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  025/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm35%15%10%

All times in UTC

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