Viewing archive of Monday, 11 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 11 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N09W57) produced a
C8 flare at 11/1508 UTC and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
classification. Region 789 (N16W12) continued to decay and is now
an Eao Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an M-class event from Region 786.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained southward Bz following the shock arrival on 09 July
resulted in minor storming during the period 0600 - 0900 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions on 12 July due to the arrival of a
transient from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09 July.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 July.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 093 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/047 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 022/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 025/025-010/012-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |