Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 19 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless. No significant activity was observed during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A decrease to predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed by unsettled levels on 22 July.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jul 071
  Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        19 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  019/034
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  020/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm35%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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