Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 19 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless. No significant activity was observed
during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly
elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at
background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major
to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A decrease to
predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed
by unsettled levels on 22 July.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 071 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 019/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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