Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 20 2215 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activitiy is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, beginning at about 19/2300. The solar wind speed was approximately 525 km/s with a slight upward trend at the time of issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storming on 21 July as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Conditions should decrease to predominantly unsettled on 22 and 23 July.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 072
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

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