Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 16 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W10) continues to show decay in sunspot area while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 797.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position during the latter half of 15 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 17 August. Activity should gradually decline on 18 August and should be quiet to unsettled by 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 076
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  012/020-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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