Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 17 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W23)
continues to slowly decay in area and magnetic complexity. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind
speed at ACE has been variable between approximately 600 km/s to 750
km/s due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on 18 August and gradually
diminish to quiet to unsettled conditions by 19 - 20 August.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 077 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/015-008/008-004/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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