Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 18 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 799 (S12W56) was responsible for several B-class flares. LASCO imagery showed a CME at 18/1654 UTC directed towards the southwest which was likely associated with a B2 flare which occurred from Region 799 at 18/1605 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has gradually decreased from approximately 700 km/s to 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active periods on 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 - 21 August.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 083
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  008/010-004/007-004/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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