Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 01 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07) continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region 803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event from region 806.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in response to the corotating interaction region that became geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September. Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August. Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September, decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 079
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  017/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  025/030-020/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%35%15%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm30%25%10%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%

All times in UTC

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