Viewing archive of Friday, 2 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 02 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 806 produced a long duration B4 flare at 01/2321 UTC with an associated CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 01/2354 UTC. This CME was a complex full halo event, with the biggest contribution believed to have its origin on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from Region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storming occurred between 0600 - 0900 UTC and again between 1600 - 1800 UTC after the arrival of a transient shock at approximately 02/1340 UTC from the CME on 31 August. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels with a chance for isolated minor storming on 02 September as the transient flow passes. The geomagnetic field should be at unsettled levels on 03 September. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 September due to the arrival of the CME associated with the long duration B4 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 077
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  075/080/085
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  011/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  020/025-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%20%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%25%
Minor storm30%15%20%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

All times in UTC

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