Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 September 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 805 (S11W17) produced a B6 flare at 03/0410 UTC. There are no other regions with spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class event from region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Geomagnetic storming occurred between 03/0000 - 0600 UTC after a period of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed showed a steady decline with initial values around 675 km/s to day-end values around 550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field at ACE declined throughout the period, ending the day at about 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 September. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming is expected on 05 September due to the possible effects of transient flow from the CME on 01 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06 September.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 074
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  075/080/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  024/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  022/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/015-012/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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