Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 12 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A new region emerged on
the disk today as a H-type sunspot group, and was numbered as Region
822 (S04E81). This region produced a long duration C2.5 flare at
12/1458 UTC, and an impulsive C9.5 event at 12/1933 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Continued C-class flares are possible from Region 822.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 083 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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