Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels again today. Region
836 (S10W91) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 16/2103Z, as this region
began to rotate off the west limb. An associated CME was seen in
LASCO imagery that appears to have a westward component, not
expecting any geoeffective conditions. Region 834 (S07W32) has
shown growth during the period and has developed into a beta-gamma
magnetic sunspot classification. Region 837 (S10E22) is a newly
numbered four spot, Dso beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 834 has the potential to produced
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet top unsettled levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 085 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 004/008-004/005-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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