Viewing archive of Friday, 16 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 16 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
836 (S10W78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.4 flare
at 16/1257Z. This region was also the source of multiple B-class
flares. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 086 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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