Viewing archive of Monday, 20 February 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant activity was noted again today. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An enhancement of the solar wind speed occurred near 20/1000Z (400 km/sec to 550/ km/sec) due to a geoeffective coronal hole. A brief period of major storm levels occurred at higher latitudes between 20/1500 and 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 and 22 February, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 23 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 076
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  010/015-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%

All times in UTC

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