Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 February 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity remains at very low levels. Activity
was limited to a small disappearing solar filament which occurred in
the southwest quadrant. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions are due to a favorably positioned transequatorial coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole should
begin to wane late on 24 February with conditions diminishing to
quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 076 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 009/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 012/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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