Viewing archive of Monday, 1 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 875 (S11W33) produced a
long-duration C1/sf flare at 01/1535Z. Region 876 (S15W07) produced
a B9/sf flare at 01/0157Z. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
shock speed of 436 Km/sec was associated with this flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled. Intervals of active
conditions are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 093 Predicted 02 May-04 May 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 01 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-015/020-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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