Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 28 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New region 890 (S14W29) produced a B1 flare at 28/1257Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. A period of unsettled conditions was observed from 28/0300Z - 28/0600Z, possibly due to a glancing blow from the CME which occurred on 26 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days (29-30 May). Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 31 May.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 May 085
  Predicted   29 May-31 May  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        28 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  005/010-005/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-67nT)

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