Viewing archive of Monday, 22 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 22 2253 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a single, B6 x-ray event at 1952Z from Region 884 (S13E08). The event was accompanied by a slow Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 548 km/s). Region 884 and Region 885 (S12E17) are the only spotted regions on the disk and are stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the next three days (23-25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (23-24 May). Generally unsettled conditions are expected on the third day (25 May) due to recurrence.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 083
  Predicted   23 May-25 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        22 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-64nT)

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