Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level B-class events. There is also an indication in solar x-ray images of the return of old Region 882, which is just behind the east limb at about S12. Region 882 produced a few B-class events and reached a maximum area of 130 millionths on its previous transit. The region appears to be quiet and stable at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (26-28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Real-time solar wind from ACE indicated the possible onset of a sector boundary, beginning at about 1800Z. As of forecast issue time there had not yet been any geomagnetic response.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours (26 May). Conditions should return to predominantly quiet levels for 27-28 May.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 084
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        25 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  007/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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