Viewing archive of Friday, 26 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 26 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 885 (S12W38) produced a B5 flare at 25/2328Z. A halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery, beginning at 26/0006Z. Regions 887 (S12E64) and 888 (N05W64) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (27-28 May). Unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 29 May due to transient effects from today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 082
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        26 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-67nT)

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