Viewing archive of Monday, 3 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S07W01)
continues to produce occasional minor B-class flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed
coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position in the next 24 hours. Expect occasional active to minor
storm periods on 04 and 05 July. Unsettled to active periods are
likely on 06 July.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 086 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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