Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. New Region 901 (N06E70)
produced several B-class flares. Region 900 (S06W65) is currently
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 23 July. Quiet to active levels are
expected on 24-25 July, with possible minor storm conditions at high
latitudes. The elevated conditions are due to the arrival of a CME
from 20 July and a recurrent coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 074 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 005/005-015/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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