Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 904 (S13W42) produced a couple of B-class flares today. This region continues to be large, but has lost some of its magnetic complexity in the trailing spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. An active period was observed between 18/0300Z - 18/0600Z. A weak shock was observed by ACE at approximately 18/1550Z. Following the shock, the solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 360 km/sec to about 420 km/sec. However, the IMF remained predominantly northward. There was a 5 nT sudden impulse observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 18/1644Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels, with possible isolated major storm conditions on 19 August, due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20 August, due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 21 August.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 089
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  025/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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