Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 904 (S14W03)
produced four B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest
of these was a B8 flare at 15/1044Z. The penumbra in the large
trailer spot appears to be breaking apart; however, the area, number
of spots, and magnetic complexity have not changed significantly
since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 086 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 086/086/090 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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