Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E10)
remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 22 September. Unsettled to active
conditions with isolated minor storm periods are possible on 23
September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return for 24
September.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 071 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 005/005-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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