Viewing archive of Friday, 25 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 905 (S08E20), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced occasional B-class x-ray enhancements, but was otherwise stable this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 August. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 27 and 28 August, and produce unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 077
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  005/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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