Viewing archive of Monday, 25 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 25 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S08W46) has decayed to a plage region with no spots visible in white light imagery. Updated LASCO imagery shows a CME originating from behind the NE limb on 23 Sep. A slow CME was also observed from Region 910 on 24 Sep. Neither event is expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated (currently 525 km/s) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The speed has, however, been steadily decreasing the past 24 hours as the coronal hole rotates into a less geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (26 - 28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 070
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  070/080/075
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  015/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  005/008-006/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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