Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 917 (S05W46) now has a magnetic classification of Beta-gamma.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with one period of minor storming. Solar wind speed remains elevated though it has been slowly and steadily decreasing. Its current speed is approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. An isolated period of minor storming is possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 076
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  008/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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