Viewing archive of Monday, 27 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 27 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
926 (S08E47) developed several umbra in the trailing portion of
sunspot cluster and is now classified a magnetic beta group. Region
927 (N08E59) was numbered today and appears to be a rapidly
developing emerging flux region. Several B-class flares were
attributed to this region today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class
flare from Region 926.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar
wind speed has steadily decreased to less than 550 km/sec during the
period as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. The
greater than 2 electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 082 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-003/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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