Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 31 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 921 (S07E44) has
increased in area to approximately 120 millionths and is now
classified as a beta gamma magnetic group. New Region 922 (S15E58)
was numbered today. At 31/0518 UTC, LASCO C3 imagery showed a halo
CME with an approximate plane of sky speed at 390 km/s. This CME is
likely a backsided event and therefore, not geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-flare activity is possible from Region 921.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 080 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 002/005-002/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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