Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 926 (S10W25) produced
two C1/Sf flares at 02/2207Z and 03/0325Z. This region remains a
beta-gamma group. Region 927 (N08W21) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first two days (4-5 December).
Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active
periods, are expected on 6 December as a recurrent coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 087 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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