Viewing archive of Monday, 4 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. An active region rotating onto
the east limb (S06) produced eight C-class flares during the past 24
hours. The largest of these was a C4 flare at 04/1439Z. Region 926
(S10W43) has decayed since yesterday and is now a Beta magnetic
group. New Region 929 (N02E67) is classified as a Bxo-Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 5 December. Quiet to active conditions are
expected on 6 December, as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position. Expect active to minor storm conditions,
with possible major storm periods, on 7 December.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 092 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-010/010-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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