Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. No solar
activity was noted today and the visible disk remains void of
sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on
20 December and remain geoeffective through the entire forecast
period. Periods of isolated major storm conditions are possible on
21 December at the higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 073 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/020-015/030-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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