Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 22 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was briefly at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 November. On 24 and 25
November, active to minor storm periods are possible due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 077 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 070/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 001/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/008-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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