Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 23 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. LASCO imagery shows
a CME on the Southwest limb at 23/1331Z. Plane of sky speed is
approximately 550 km/s. This event appears to originate from the
backside and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with one period of minor
storming. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active from 24 - 26 November. There
is the possibility of isolated periods of minor storming for the
entire forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 077 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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