Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 February 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 942 (S11E05) has developed two trailer spots while retaining its beta magnetic configuration. No spots are currently visible in Region 943 (S12W23).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through 24 February.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 075
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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