Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 February 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 944 (S10E75) rotated on the visible disk today and is currently classified as an alpha magnetic sunspot group. Region 942 (S10W07) remained quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through 24 February. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on 25 February due to a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated major storm periods are possible at high latitudes as the coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 076
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  078/080/085
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  005/005-005/005-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm10%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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