Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
has been observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 19 July as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective
position. Expect unsettled to active conditions with possible
isolated periods of minor storming on 20 - 21 July due to the
ensuing coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 070 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/010-012/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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