Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active on 10 August in response to a
recurrent coronal hole. Active conditions are anticipated to
persist through 11 August; high-latitude minor storm periods are
possible. By 12 August, the coronal hole rotates out of a
geoeffective position and conditions are expected to return to
quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 067 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/025-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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