Viewing archive of Friday, 10 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06W20)
produced no significant flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A recurrent
coronal hole became geoeffective at approximately 10/1400Z. The
solar wind speed at ACE rose from 225 km/s and reached 560 km/s by
forecast time. The 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active. Minor storms are possible
at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to
end during the latter half of 11 August as the recurrent coronal
hole rotates away from a geoeffective position. Quiet conditions
are anticipated on 12 and 13 August.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 068 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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